Editor’s Note: This story is included in The Athletic’s Best of 2023. View the full list.
Read the latest edition of Mike Sando’s NFL Quarterback Tiers.
Patrick Mahomes has no equal in this 10th edition of the Quarterback Tiers, although AFC rival Joe Burrow is close behind. Mahomes, Burrow and Josh Allen all overtook Aaron Rodgers. Justin Herbert is lurking. Is Jalen Hurts on track to join the exclusive Tier 1 ranks, reserved for the very best?
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The 2023 Quarterback Tiers results are here, complete with commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who were granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations. This year, the 50 league insiders who placed 30 veteran quarterbacks into tiers included eight general managers, 10 head coaches, 15 coordinators, 10 executives, four quarterbacks coaches and three involved in coaching/analytics.
Voters put 30 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Mahomes, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as a unanimous Tier 1 selection. No QBs landed in Tier 5 this year, although some received Tier 5 votes. The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL.
The tiers are defined below. Generally speaking, the better equipped a quarterback is to win with less help around him, especially in situations when running the ball is not feasible, the better he will fare in Quarterback Tiers.
The 30 QB modules below expand to reveal commentary and voting histories. Tap or click on the down arrows near each QB to get started.
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Tier 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
Mahomes was a unanimous Tier 1 choice for the third time in the past four seasons. He has commanded top-tier recognition on 199 of 200 ballots over that time, best in the league.
“He’s clearly the best player in the league and just entering the front end of his prime window,” an exec said. “He reminds so much of Rodgers. This is the time in his career where, just like Rodgers, the final polishing of his game will be in his play-clock manipulation, calling timeouts and knowing even better when to give up on plays.”
Mahomes checks important boxes: talented, tough, intelligent, driven and creative, with excellent feel for how to lead a team. His ability to play well while obviously injured in the playoffs last season elevated him further.
“The thing that really showed last year was just how much he was willing himself and the team,” an offensive coordinator said. “He was not going to let that be the reason, and if it did become the reason, I doubt he would have said that was the reason.”
As voters noted, Mahomes is a killer late in games, even if a defense has limited him to that point. Solving defenses that increasingly tried to limit explosive plays through softer coverages was another reason voters admired Mahomes.
“Some guys do better with more man pressure, knowing there are less people in coverage and they can throw the football even if they are going to get hit,” another head coach said. “Some guys like to play against quarterback-vision zone defenses. Then you have the freak shows who can do all that and play off schedule. Mahomes is at the top of that list.”
An opposing defensive coach put it this way: “He plays on schedule, off schedule — the guy has more schedules than Grand Central Station.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty
Tiers over time
Burrow climbed from the bottom of Tier 1 last year to very near the top. He overtook Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers in getting there.
“Burrow is fantastic,” a defensive coach said. “He is tough, smart, accurate, has a lot of the intangibles you are looking for. He just takes a lot of sacks, which I’m worried about with Joe. He gets hit a lot, and a lot of it is his fault, but he’s a dog.”
Burrow’s lone Tier 2 vote came from an executive who listed only two top-tier quarterbacks on his ballot: Mahomes and Allen. This exec cited the “no real holes in his game” verbiage of the Tier 1 definition in asserting that the sacks Burrow takes are a hole in his game.
“Joe is going to hang onto it til the very last second, which is one of his great qualities, but sometimes you have to know when to say when,” this exec said. “He hangs in there in the teeth of the rush, but then when you get a hand on him, he is not real strong. He is not bouncing off people, he’s not pulling away from sacks like some of these other guys.”
That single Tier 2 vote for Burrow was interesting, but also an outlier.
“When your team is behind, who has the lowest blood pressure of any quarterback in the league?” another exec said. “I put Burrow right at the top.”
Voter after voter touched upon Burrow’s poise.
“Great decision-making, pocket presence, doesn’t get rattled, understands coverages,” a defensive coordinator said. “At the end of the day, his body is what is going to let him down, because he takes too many hits.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty
Tiers over time
Allen is one of 35 quarterbacks to appear in Quarterback Tiers at least five times. He is the only one among them whose average vote improved in his second, third, fourth and fifth appearances.
“The turnovers are what people harp on, but he put together another year where he overcame the accuracy flaws that plagued him coming out (of college), and he fought through adversity when they lost some star players like Von Miller,” an exec said. “He is a guy I can firmly say you win because of now, instead of you win with.”
Despite the steady year-over-year climbs for Allen in Quarterback Tiers, he lost ground to Burrow, who leapfrogged him.
“He’s legitimate,” a defensive coordinator who placed Allen in Tier 1 said. “He can beat you with his arm. He has all the arm strength, his accuracy has improved, but he also can beat you running. He’s a big boy. Similar to Mahomes, but he is going to take off. It is like trying to tackle a tight end.”
Two defensive coordinators were among the six voters who placed Allen in Tier 2.
“I’m not sure he can win you a game as a dropback passer consistently, which is part of the Tier 1 description,” one of these coordinators said. “I think Allen, Lamar (Jackson) and Jalen (Hurts) all fit into that high Tier 2 category. The running is a weapon, but if you are down two scores or 10 points, you might have an issue.”
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Billie Weiss / Getty
Tiers over time
Rodgers’ fall from the unanimous and near-unanimous Tier 1 ranks should feel familiar. Tom Brady experienced an even more extreme downgrade when transitioning from New England to Tampa Bay following a forgettable final season with the Patriots.
“Brady goes to Tampa, he has more talent around him, he hosts the receivers at his house for throwing sessions, he has a great year,” a voter with NFC North experience said. “Rodgers goes to the Jets, he has more talent around him, he is clearly more motivated, he was at OTAs, he has been part of the offseason program. It’s the same.”
Playing style could be a meaningful difference.
“Father Time is undefeated,” a voter who placed the 39-year-old Rodgers in Tier 2 said. “Brady always won by his arm and never had to use his feet. Aaron used his feet more in the past, and I think that part of his game has left him. He’s accurate, but I don’t think he can do it for a 17-game season. He has to have other dimensions to help him take it to that winning level every time.”
Brady slipped into Tier 2 heading into his first season with Tampa. Rodgers remained in the top tier despite the concerns, but his 20 Tier 2 votes this year were nearly triple his combined total in nine previous Quarterback Tiers appearances.
“ESPN showed it over and over the other day in camp when Rodgers looked off the safety and threw an upfield fade where the kid got his toes down and motioned for the first down,” an exec said. “We have watched that for 15 years. My question is, why wouldn’t it be 16? He is not going to all of a sudden let the pass rush beat him up. The opponents are afraid of him and the hard count and the look-offs and all the other graduate-level stuff.”
There is another intriguing consideration.
“Green Bay played four games on turf last year,” an exec said. “Guess how many the Jets play this year? Fourteen. Huge difference for a guy who turns 40 in December and has had some lower-leg injuries, including calf strains. (Nathaniel) Hackett’s offense has the boot package, the wide stretch runs. It’s a lot of pounding on a surface that is tough on an old guy’s legs.”
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Mike Stobe / Getty
Tiers over time
Herbert received seven fewer Tier 1 votes this year than last after his production fell and his Chargers blew a 27-0 lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs. He remained solidly within Tier 1, with only one vote separating him from Rodgers.
“I think he can carry the team, just from me coaching against him,” a defensive coordinator said. “He has the size, the arm strength, he sees the field well. What shocks you is his mobility for his size. He is a better version of Deshaun (Watson).”
Twenty-one voters placed Herbert in Tier 2. What can Herbert do to win them over?
“Not lose when you have that kind of lead in the playoffs,” a head coach said. “Make a play when you had multiple opportunities to make one. I think (new coordinator) Kellen Moore is going to give him opportunities to light up the stat sheet. I want to see him win.”
The Chargers finished 10-7 last season. Herbert played through damaged rib cartilage.
“Love the toughness, just need to see him win more in pure-pass (situations),” an exec said.
For now, there’s a line separating him from Burrow and Allen higher in the top tier.
“Maybe it’s a product of the team as a whole, but there is something for me, I don’t think he’s at that echelon quite yet,” a defensive coach said. “He has all the ability and skill set to get there. I just don’t think he is there yet.”
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Courtney Culbreath / Getty
Tiers over time
Tier 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Hurts has climbed from 30th to 20th to sixth over his three appearances in Quarterback Tiers, placing him on the brink of the top tier. Only Seattle’s Geno Smith gained more ground from last year in average tier vote.
“Hurts has progressively at every level gotten better the longer he is in a system,” an exec who provided one of Hurts’ 10 top-tier votes said. “He is not just solely a runner. He has shown he can push the ball down the field. He has to improve his consistent accuracy, but that is something that comes with time on the job.”
Hurts has yet to prove himself in 2-minute situations.
“That is why I was so fascinated with the Super Bowl,” a head coach said. “If they do not call that pass interference (on the Eagles), Kansas City kicks a field goal and then we find out once and for all, Jalen Hurts in the 2-minute. Because the last time he was in one, and people forget this, they lost at home on Monday night. Washington didn’t let him out of the tackle box, and Philly did not win that game.”
The personnel situation in Philly has been unusually favorable. That probably changes in the future as Hurts’ new contract robs resources from elsewhere on the roster, and opponents improve their plans for Philly’s offense. Some voters predicted Hurts would settle closer to Tier 3 than Tier 1 once those things happen.
“I feel with Hurts like I once did with Dak (Prescott),” a former GM said. “Dak probably was a high 2 somewhere along the way, but overall, his career is a 3 to me.”
Prescott has settled solidly into Tier 2 in recent years. Hurts is a much better runner and he has already been to a Super Bowl.
“It was a big conversation last year, if Hurts does not play well, they are going to draft another quarterback,” a defensive coach said. “But I remember after seeing him, going, ‘This dude can play.’ I thought he was a much better drop-back passer than what people were saying. I told our guys, ‘Man, this quarterback is good.’”
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Michael Reaves / Getty
Tiers over time
Jackson is coming off a second successive injury-shortened season, but his average tier vote remained stable and he rose three spots in the rankings (Hurts passed him, but Jackson passed Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, while Tom Brady retired).
“I was really tempted to put him at 1 since when he’s healthy, Baltimore wins,” an exec said, “but I kept him at 2 with the definition requiring expert handling of pure-pass situations.”
Jackson’s passing will be the focus this season as Baltimore transitions to new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Voters were divided over whether the change will unleash Jackson or expose his limitations as a passer.
“What’s nice is, Monken is getting him as a veteran quarterback,” a GM said. “He doesn’t have him as a first- or second-year young guy, so I think he can help him. Don’t forget, (former coordinator) Greg Roman got him as a rookie. There was a lot to work on.”
Jackson’s average tier vote improved from 2.00 last year to 1.94 this year. He ranks 19th in EPA per pass play over the past three seasons.
“If Josh Allen was in that same offense Lamar was in, you would think of Josh the same way you think of Lamar,” a defensive coordinator said. “Josh was just in a more pro-favorable offense. Lamar, whatever they thought they were doing, simple fact of the matter is, they put him basically in a college offense. It will be really good to see if Lamar elevates his game and people say he is more like Josh Allen.”
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Mike Carlson / Getty
Tiers over time
Lawrence made the third-largest gain from last year in average tier vote, jumping from the bottom of Tier 3 into the middle of Tier 2. Jackson was the last quarterback to make a bigger year-over-year jump in average tier vote at a similar point in his career.
“I could see him making a jump to a 1 this year,” a defensive coordinator said. “You saw something flip after their bye week. He was more confident in the offense. I still think he’s a little bit slow to trigger at times and takes too many sacks.”
Lawrence took 17 of his 27 sacks in four games.
“He hasn’t been real accurate as a pro passer, not as much as I thought he would have been, but you could see big improvements, quicker decisions,” a GM said. “He took a huge jump last year. He hit a couple throws on the move in their playoff win where you were like, ‘Holy s—.’ He also threw four picks in the first half. But he is going places.”
Lawrence and the Jaguars went 3-2 last season in games when they trailed by at least 17 points. The rest of the league was 7-74-1 in those.
“Dallas was up 17 on him late and he brought them back,” an offensive coordinator said. “I didn’t think he could do that. Again, Doug (Pederson) has done a great job with him. Doug had (Carson) Wentz playing at a playoff-caliber level in their first year together. Lawrence is a better player, more sudden with his movements, is more of a modern shotgun passer.”
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Mike Carlson / Getty
Tiers over time
This is Prescott’s fourth consecutive season ranking between ninth and 12th. His average tier vote has remained stable.
“Dak has done it year in and year out, and this past year, I don’t think it was through the health of an efficient run game,” a defensive coach said. “He always falls short in the end, but he puts up numbers. I felt like a lot of the load was on him last season.”
The Cowboys have a 24-10 record the past two seasons. They rank seventh in offensive EPA and second on defense over that span but have only one postseason victory to show for it.
“There is always a knock on guys who do not go deep in the playoffs,” a defensive coordinator said. “Dak can drop back, he is great with play-action and the boot, he has some movement ability in the pocket. Ultimately, what keeps him from being a 1 is he turns the ball over for whatever reason.”
Only Taylor Heinicke had a higher turnover rate than Prescott among qualifying quarterbacks last season. Prescott was at the league average over the 2019-21 seasons combined.
“I just felt playing him, he is a solid player, but he has yet to ever elevate them in a division that was historically weak and has just never got them over the hump for whatever reason,” an exec said. “The body of work maybe is what he is, and he’s going to need more around him. Even having a dominant defense, why haven’t they been able to go farther?”
Losing to San Francisco in each of the past two divisional rounds hardly qualifies as an embarrassment. But a 2-4 career postseason record doesn’t enhance the résumé.
“A slight nudge up in decision-making and just passing talent, arm talent, would go a long way for him,” an offensive coach said.
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Richard Rodriguez / Getty
Tiers over time
Stafford is making his 10th consecutive appearance in Tier 2, but his 2.32 average vote was his worst since entering the 2016 season. He played only nine games in 2022 because of injury.
“I don’t know if they can protect well enough for him,” an offensive coach said. “Does he really give a s— enough at this stage of his career to be disciplined, or is he just going to wing it when it gets a little tight, and just force balls because he can? Remember Philip Rivers at the end in (Los Angeles) when he threw 21 interceptions and just said f— it? That’s what I’m worried about.”
Rivers led the NFL in interceptions twice over his final three seasons with the Chargers. Stafford led the league in 2021, but his interception rate has never been as high as Rivers’ highest rates.
“If he doesn’t get hurt, he is still a top-level quarterback,” a personnel director said. “I think he can still sling it around. The offense was not predicated on the run first even when they won the Super Bowl, so I think any time he is healthy and back there able to deal it, you can win because of him.”
Stafford has missed about half the season twice in the past four years.
“He still has the ability to go win a game in the 2-minute drill, regardless of the pieces around him,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just think his body is betraying him. You hear great things about his football IQ and just hope that will allow him to maintain, where if there is any more semblance of a run game, it will help him. He just can’t be a volume thrower at this point.”
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Harry How / Getty
Tiers over time
Only Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr suffered greater year-over-year drops than Watson suffered in average tier vote.
“I’ll tell you what, when we played him, it was bad,” a defensive coach said. “It was real shaky.”
Only Mayfield and Joe Flacco ranked lower than Watson last season in EPA per pass play among 39 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts.
“Everybody thinks, ‘OK, his rust will wear off after a couple weeks,’” a defensive coordinator said. “That guy hadn’t played in what, a year and some change? That’s a hard thing. He was one of my 1s last year. I would put him as a 2 with the probability that he will be a 1 again.”
Watson played the final six games last season after serving a suspension stemming from 24 civil lawsuits accusing him of lewd behavior during massage sessions. Watson denied wrongdoing, but then apologized and reached settlements with most of his accusers.
“That position is the hardest position to play in football, and taking time away takes some things away from you,” a personnel director said. “He has a skill set that could take him back to where he was or close to, but the game hasn’t gotten slower. He is going to have to show he is able to do some of those things again.”
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Nick Cammett / Getty
Tiers over time
Cousins has climbed into Tier 2 for the second time in eight Quarterback Tiers appearances, and by the narrowest of margins. The last time was entering 2017, when 26 of 50 voters placed him in Tier 2. It was a 25-25 split this time, placing Cousins on the borderline.
“People have him down in Tier 3 and I’m like, ‘No, no, no, no, no,’” an exec said. “But the guy is a riddle. He plays almost flawlessly in the second half in the biggest comeback in the history of the league (against Indianapolis), which almost no one can do, and then one month later, in the playoffs, he’s got fourth-and-8 on the last play of the game and he’s hitting the checkdown five yards short of the sticks with the defender all over the receiver.”
Cousins dropped off statistically last season from his 2019-21 pace, but the Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games. Cousins led the NFL with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories and eight game-winning drives, according to Pro Football Reference. He never had more than four of either in a season previously.
“He is probably the guy I was torn the most on between a 2 and a 3,” an offensive coordinator who placed Cousins in Tier 2 said. “He will probably never win a Super Bowl, but he is just a damn good player who more times than not, they are at least even, if not a little ahead, of who they are playing from a quarterback standpoint.”
The No. 12 ranking for Cousins is his highest in eight Quarterback Tiers appearances.
“He is smart, he has got leadership, he’s got command of the offense,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not sure he can carry the team, even sometimes. There is something missing there, but if there was a 2.5 here, I would give him that.”
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Stephen Maturen / Getty
Tiers over time
Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
Murray dropped into Tier 3 after a rough season that ended for him with a torn ACL after 11 starts.
“I’m anxious to see how he handles the ACL because when you are that electric, it’s kind of like the RG3 thing, where you wonder what is going to happen,” an offensive coordinator said. “The difference is, Kyler can really throw the football.”
Last season became a referendum on Murray’s leadership and work ethic after the Cardinals included and later removed from his contract a clause requiring Murray to study his playbook.
“When he was healthy, he was the reason they were a playoff team (in 2021),” the lone voter who placed Murray in the top tier said. “It wasn’t because of their defense or special teams, or DeAndre Hopkins or a great run game. It was his ability to make plays. When a guy can take over games as often as he did, it means he is the franchise. The leadership part could knock him down.”
More than leadership knocked down Murray for others.
“He obviously gives up on the play way too quick,” an exec said. “He is a mismatch against the defense when he takes off, but you just can’t get to Tier 1 unless you can win from the pocket consistently, which we see all the time in the playoffs.”
An offensive coach thought the Cardinals erred pairing a young, less mature Murray with veteran receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Hopkins, suggesting Murray was never going to earn their respect out of the gates.
“It is really weird when you are young,” this coach said. “What happens is those guys are naturally tougher on you. You can come off some type of way. Now, the work ethic stuff and the intangible part of the job, enough is out there where that is real. Kyler has to establish that with a fresh start, because on the field, I think he is a Tier 2 quarterback, if he is healthy.”
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Michael Reaves / Getty
Tiers over time
Carr’s nine-year run with the Raiders ended with the team ranked 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams, creating a hill no mid-tier quarterback was ever going to overcome. The dynamics should be different for Carr in New Orleans, which could allow him to win more frequently, even if he’s largely the same player.
“Derek is in the same category as a (Kirk) Cousins or (Jared) Goff, where I think people have a much worse opinion of them than coaches have,” a defensive play caller said. “Derek is a special passer, quick release, the accuracy, he’s got more mobility than you think. What holds him back is his courage in the pocket. But he can throw it and he can be a really good decision-maker, super sharp at the line of scrimmage, can see it. I am higher on him than most.”
Carr rose into Tier 2 last year, then settled back into Tier 3 for the fourth time in the past five years after a disappointing season under new Raiders coach Josh McDaniels.
“Derek can still make some big-time plays, but what you get with him too frequently is a key big error,” an exec said. “That keeps him out of Tier 2. He is a roller coaster.”
A better offensive line and better defense in New Orleans should help. The Saints have ranked second in defensive EPA over the past three seasons, while the Raiders ranked 31st. Margins for error expand with strong defenses providing insurance.
“I think he is a little bit above Tier 3 as a quarterback, and those pieces in New Orleans are going to help him,” a defensive coordinator said.
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Sean Gardner / Getty
Tiers over time
This is Goff’s fourth consecutive year in Tier 3, but his average tier vote is higher than it’s been since Goff was coming off his 2018 Super Bowl season with the Rams.
“I gave Jared a 3, and that might be a little low because he played amazing last year,” a coordinator said. “I am giving the system and (Lions offensive coordinator) Ben Johnson more of the love than I am giving Jared. They ran the ball really well, maybe the most creative run game that we looked at last year. If Jared does it again, he would cement himself in my opinion as a 2.”
Goff commanded 17 Tier 2 votes this year after getting 18 over the previous three years combined.
“I saw all their tape, and he was dynamite last season,” an offensive coach said. “Got the ball out of his hands, did not get stuck in the backfield. He was accurate with touch. He was still not great great, but he got the most out of what he is.”
Two years after the Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams in a deal that returned Goff, Stafford owns a Super Bowl ring, but Goff is now in the more favorable situation.
“Jared got a bad rap in L.A.,” a defensive play caller said. “If Stafford is healthy, he is the better player, but Jared is going to be available. He has that California vibe but is way tougher than people realize. You saw that when he won a playoff game with a broken thumb.”
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Gregory Shamus / Getty
Tiers over time
Wilson’s drop in average tier vote from 1.72 last year to 2.82 this year is the largest one-year decline in the 10-year history of Quarterback Tiers.
“I think he was out of shape, I think he was reading his own press clippings last year, I think they bent over backwards for him in the trade, and he had them by the short hairs, but I think Sean Payton is going to get the most out of him,” an offensive coordinator said. “It would not surprise me if he plays well this year.”
While Wilson’s decline from last year was most extreme, this year marks the third in a row that Wilson’s stock in Quarterback Tiers has fallen.
“Some injury stuff probably was real last year, but he has lost that athleticism and speed to make the plays that he used to make as far as extending the down for receivers to make plays down the field,” a personnel director said. “He is still a capable passer, still a guy with a big arm, but I think he needs more things around him.”
Voters generally thought Payton, the Broncos’ new coach, would help Wilson perform better this season but not necessarily for the long term.
“If Russ is not stubborn, if he has a willingness to listen and if he respects Sean Payton as much as I think he probably does, there will be more stability and he won’t do things that maybe are out of his declining skill set right now,” an exec said. “Some guys, they are only willing to listen to someone they truly respect. Sean Payton’s system does allow for a lot of gimmes.”
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Jared C. Tilton / Getty
Tiers over time
Tagovailoa made the fifth-largest jump from last year, drawing Tier 2 votes for the first time in three Quarterback Tiers appearances. He escaped Tier 4 for the first time and now must prove he can stay on the field for a full season.
“When the pocket was clean, he was pretty dynamite this past season,” an offensive coach said. “His short-area accuracy is just a defining trait that elevates him.”
Tagovailoa, like Jared Goff and some others, has experienced wild swings in offensive play design and supporting talent. That can sometimes cloud how much credit or blame the player actually deserves.
“Having a chance to go against him from his rookie year to where he is now, the accuracy is definitely a strength and he has a little bit of mobility, but when you just have (average) guys at receiver, he can become very average,” a defensive coach said. “If you don’t allow him to throw the ball on time, he could be very suspect. When teams get up and slow down Tyreek (Hill) and that No. 17 (Jaylen Waddle), you saw the deficiencies in Tua’s game. He is a timing thrower, ball has to come out on time, very little disruption, and that to me puts him as a 3.”
An offensive coach said this kind of thinking can put the player in a no-win situation.
“Sometimes it seems that people will use the same argument to build a guy up and to tear a guy down,” this coach said. “If they like him, they will say the player has no one around him. Then the team will get players around him, and people say the only reason he is succeeding it is because he has players around him. The guy doesn’t have any coaching. He gets coaching. Then they say it’s only because they got coaching. You still have to make the plays.”
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Thearon W. Henderson / Getty
Tiers over time
Voters want to see how Garoppolo performs for Las Vegas without Kyle Shanahan’s system and without an elite defense on his side. They also want to see him stay on the field.
“He’s been with teams that can run it, and they do have a good back (Josh Jacobs), and they will probably hand it off a fair amount to take some pressure off, which could be good for Jimmy,” an offensive coach said. “He’s a 3, but a good 3. Plays like a 2 a decent amount of the time.”
Garoppolo’s knowledge of coach Josh McDaniels’ offense should help him. But will the offense itself help him?
“This is going to be a whole different world for Jimmy back with Josh because now completions are first and the run game, yes, Josh is going to call it, but they don’t live in the wide zone, making plays off the wide zone,” a head coach said. “I think this is going to be a true test of Jimmy. Where exactly are you at in your career as an NFL quarterback? Then you throw in the durability factor.”
Coaches think Shanahan’s system protects quarterbacks by limiting their exposure to more difficult dropback passing situations. Coaches also think the limited exposure to dropback passing makes San Francisco and its quarterbacks less prepared for dropback passing when it is required.
“Jimmy is obviously a system guy, probably on the lower end of the 2s,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m sure a lot of people will have him as a 3. He can make throws on the intermediate and short level consistently well.”
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Ethan Miller / Getty
Tiers over time
Only Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence improved their Quarterback Tiers standing more than Jones from last year. A coaching change would seem to be the key variable.
“I love the way he took care of the ball,” a head coach said. “That was the No. 1 thing he improved. I don’t know if his arm will ever elevate those around him, but when you are a big man that has athleticism and takes care of the ball, you are going to give yourself a chance.”
The Giants are banking on improved weaponry, notably the addition of tight end Darren Waller, to expand a conservative pass offense. The team ranked 30th in air yards per attempt last season. Jones’ athleticism helped the Giants rank third in EPA on scrambles, worth about 2.4 points per game, according to TruMedia.
“He’s a function of the offense,” a defensive coordinator said. “I don’t think from an arm standpoint he does a whole lot that is going to scare you, but his speed does. And I do think Brian Daboll protects his quarterbacks, even Josh Allen, by giving them very predictable throws, successful throws, easy throws to skill players who can go make a play. And then he takes his shots.”
This coordinator thought Jones could become what Ryan Tannehill was at his peak in Tennessee, once the Giants’ offensive talent fills in.
“He played really well last year, and I think with the added weapons, we are going to find out what he can do,” an exec said of Jones. “I don’t know if he can carry the team yet. That is what keeps him a 3 for now.”
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Al Bello / Getty
Tiers over time
Voters loved Smith entering last season, but only as a backup. They did not think he would emerge as a solid starter for the Seahawks. Then again, even Seattle had to be surprised.
“Nobody would have guessed he would be a Pro Bowl quarterback last year,” a GM said. “Some guys make a jump. He has solidified as a legitimate starter that you can win some games with.”
The Seahawks were 9-8 and reached the playoffs with a team that, from an EPA standpoint, ranked higher on offense (15th) than on defense (25th).
“He’s got arm talent in terms of strength and accuracy, he’s got mobility, and the guy is really smart,” an offensive coordinator said. “He also has a great way about him with the guys, and what expressed itself is that the can lead a football team. They believe in the guy. And so I put him at a 3, but he is in that 2-3 range, depending on the day.”
Smith’s year-over-year jump in average tier vote was the largest for any quarterback from last year. It was the third-largest single-year leap for any player in the 10-year history of Quarterback Tiers and the largest for anyone who had already appeared in the survey multiple times (Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson made larger jumps after appearing in Tier 4 initially because they had not started much to that point).
“I don’t think what Geno did last year was a fluke,” a defensive coordinator said. “You did see him press a little bit at times, which could be more of a mindset thing. To become a 2, you have to prove it two years. Geno has the ability to do it. I do not expect a big dropoff.”
Some thought the Seahawks’ offensive struggles against the 49ers in the playoffs showed Smith’s limitations.
“The defense was playing well enough to keep them in the game in spots, but there were times Geno couldn’t fully take over and make that special play that when everything else breaks down, the quarterback has to make,” an exec said. “He’s really good at what he is, but I think ultimately he will be a little limited in his ascension.”
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Steph Chambers / Getty
Tiers over time
Fields climbed into Tier 3 on the strength of his rushing. He’ll climb higher in the future if his passing improves. Hurts’ success in Philadelphia brightened the outlook for Fields among some voters.
“As a runner, he is a 1,” an offensive coordinator said. “As a player, he has been inconsistent. But it would not shock me if we are having this conversation next year and he is a high 2. For now, the hype does not equal the ranking.”
While Hurts has benefited from an elite supporting cast in Philadelphia, Fields has been in an unusually bad situation. The Bears are just now providing him with a baseline level of support. Philly has also been much better on defense, stabilizing the situation for Hurts.
“I think Fields has a chance,” a defensive coordinator said. “He has a skill set to do it, and then in that division, he has a chance to shine a little bit this year. I’m not giving up on that kid because of the skill set he does have. When you have those legs, if you can fit the right offense around him and give him some skill players, then we’ll see.”
The hope for Fields is that he can become a functional passer.
“They changed their offense to pretty much make him a runner,” an exec said. “The accuracy and anticipation from the pocket, I just don’t see it being there. That was the big issue for him coming out. We will see what he looks like with more weapons, but those are two flaws I’m just not sure he overcomes.”
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Sarah Stier / Getty
Tiers over time
The Titans’ talent drain on offense left Tannehill in a difficult situation last season. He did not plummet in Quarterback Tiers voting, but he did sink deeper within Tier 3.
“Would you rather play with him or against him?” an exec said. “To be honest, he is probably someone I’d rather play against. Those (three) interceptions in that Bengals game could have been the beginning of the end for him.”
Seven voters placed Tannehill lower than Tier 3 amid some sense the end could be nearing. No voters placed Tannehill below Tier 3 heading into 2021 or 2022.
“Tannehill is at a pivotal point where his replacements are already on the roster, and in order for him to be the starter in Tennessee a year from now, the level of play would have to be so high that meeting those expectations seems almost unfair,” another voter said. “Ryan is a solid starter who has to be managed to prevent the big errors, but is often the byproduct of success at skill positions and defense. A Tannehill-led team can’t win a Super Bowl. His limited mobility has made him more vulnerable to hits, and his career is turning into the Ryan Fitzpatrick discussion where he’s holding on to a position with younger and experimental pieces around him.”
DeAndre Hopkins’ addition should help.
“He used to be a really good athlete, but he is older now, can’t move as well as he used to,” a GM said. “They had nothing around him on offense last year. It felt like he was on the back end. To me, he was always a 3 and now he is past his prime.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty
Tiers over time
There’s no shortage of quarterbacks whose situations were extreme last season. Jones had it worse than most.
“You can throw last year out,” an offensive coach who called Jones a low-level 3 said. “The whole Matt Patricia/Joe Judge fiasco, it is hard to judge him on that. It’ll be better because they’ll actually have routes that work, and they’ll have variations and changeups and answers. He has already done that once with Josh (McDaniels) and played his best, so he will like it and he will take it from Bill O’Brien.”
Although a few voters dropped Jones into Tier 4, most saw him as a Tier 3 quarterback whose outlook will never be much better than that.
“If you look at the guys in Tier 1 and 2, for the most part, they have an ability to create off-platform, and that has always been my issue with Mac, even coming out,” an exec said. “I thought coming out his best-case scenario was you were going to get a Kirk Cousins-type player.”
Those limitations are not the only limitations for Jones.
“You look at the skill groups, he has the worst supporting cast of any young quarterback,” the exec said. “How do you build up his confidence? You have a new coordinator. Great, I hope ‘Billy O’ makes it easy for him, but you have a quarterback who can’t create off-platform, who doesn’t have the run-after-catch guys that Tua has, and it’s tough.”
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Bryan M. Bennett / Getty
Tiers over time
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.
Many promising players have debuted in Tier 4, including Patrick Mahomes (after one career start) and Lamar Jackson (after seven). The reason was simple. Voters hadn’t seen enough to make a fuller evaluation. Purdy fell right on the border between 3 and 4, with an average tier vote that could have qualified him for Tier 3, but a majority of voters placed him in Tier 4.
Purdy made five regular-season starts last season, won playoff starts against Seattle and Dallas, then was injured against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.
“When I looked at him, I thought he was a 4,” an offensive coach said, “but when you watch the kid play, he is an absolute gamer. He has the intangibles, the moxie, the want-to, the leadership.”
Purdy was in an ideal situation — elite play caller, elite defense — and played well enough to draw 23 Tier 3 votes and a single vote in Tier 2.
“You put him on any other team and they lose more than half the games,” another offensive coach said. “They got the best rushing offense, they got the top defense, he doesn’t make mistakes and he makes some plays with his legs, he gets the ball out. Good for him.”
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Michael Owens / Getty
Tiers over time
By most accounts, the Steelers have found themselves a solid starting quarterback. Solid, but not spectacular.
“His best traits are going to be his moxie, decision-making, toughness, leadership, things that really don’t have a number,” an offensive coach said.
Three defensive coordinators who faced Pickett provided similar accounts.
“I think he sees it, and when things break down, he’s much more mobile than you think,” one of the coordinators said. “I just don’t think he has the elite arm talent.”
Another coordinator said he thought Pickett would “be in the Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones, Derek Carr conversation” at some point in the future.
“His talent is limited,” another coordinator said. “All the rest of it is top-notch.”
Pickett finished his rookie season with seven touchdown passes and nine interceptions in 12 starts. It’s not much to go on, as quarterbacks with a wide range of career outcomes produced similarly as rookies.
“He had a game-winning drive into a strong wind against Vegas on Christmas Eve,” an exec said. “We just need to see a lot more. Tier 4 is perfect for him now.”
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Joe Sargent / Getty
Tiers over time
One start, three career touchdown passes, three interceptions and 83 total pass attempts aren’t much to go on. That is why Love got so many Tier 4 votes — not enough information.
“We have no idea what this guy is,” an offensive coach said. “My initial read is that he doesn’t process the game well enough. I don’t see a natural, smooth, instinctive player, the way he reacts to the defense.”
Love is not the only one under evaluation here.
“We are going to see how good of a coach Matt LaFleur is, how good he was with game management on offense, how good he is in his 2-minute offense, because everyone who has any experience with Aaron Rodgers knows he was in charge of that,” an exec said.
Growing pains should be expected. The Packers finished 6-10 in Rodgers’ first season as a starter, although Rodgers ranked among the top 10 in passer rating and EPA per pass play (he was 11th in Total QBR).
“You’ve got Jaire Alexander out there saying Love is the best QB in the league, but those are pretty big shoes to fill,” a GM said. “I haven’t seen enough to feel comfortable going into the season like they are, saying this is our guy. I would be a little hesitant if I were them to do that, but it is what it is. That is where they took him and where they are.”
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Mitchell Layton / Getty
Tiers over time
The Buccaneers will decide between Mayfield and Kyle Trask this season as they work through salary-cap constraints lingering from their all-out push with Tom Brady. Trask has never started a game, so there was no point in including him here.
“I don’t know what’s missing,” a coordinator who placed Mayfield in Tier 4 said. “I’ve seen former No. 1 picks just melt under the pressure a little bit. Baker has been jettisoned around all over the place, and nobody really wants to put their arms around him and keep him.”
Mayfield is on his third team in the past calendar year.
“Mayfield is a low 3, on his way to being a backup,” an offensive coach said. “His accuracy has suffered, he takes too many risks, and it seems like his emotions negatively affect the way he plays.”
The Buccaneers’ quarterback/play-caller tandem has rather quickly transitioned from Tom Brady and Bruce Arians to Mayfield or Trask and first-time coordinator Dave Canales. Expectations should be adjusted accordingly.
“Mayfield moves well enough, throws well enough, does some things well enough but possesses no special ability,” a GM said. “He may win you a game because he may run around and people aren’t prepared, but at the end of the day, he is just a backup, in my opinion.”
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Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire
Tiers over time
Howell entered camp as the starter ahead of Jacoby Brissett after making one start as a rookie last season. Both are learning a new offense after Eric Bieniemy’s hiring as coordinator.
“Before it’s all said and done, I’ll be shocked if Brissett is not out there,” a head coach said. “Maybe they see something I did not see in Sam Howell coming out. He played out in that one opportunity (against Dallas last season).”
Howell completed 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Cowboys. Coach Ron Rivera said later Howell reminded him of the 49ers’ Brock Purdy. This puzzled voters.
“Couldn’t you pick someone better than Brock Purdy to compare him to?” one exec said.
“It’s not a good sign when they are comparing him to the guy in San Francisco,” another said.
The Commanders know Howell is less than a sure bet. That is partly why they invested $8 million in Brissett on a one-year deal.
“Howell does not have amazing physical gifts, but there are some things from a leadership and intangible standpoint that you like,” an offensive coordinator said. “It would not surprise me if he plays to a 3 or slightly above because they have one of the more talented skill groups with (Jahan) Dotson, (Terry) McLaurin, the kid from Carolina (Curtis Samuel).”
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Scott Taetsch / Getty
Tiers over time
Ridder, a third-round pick in 2022, made four starts for the Falcons late last season and finished with his most productive performance against Tampa Bay in Week 18. He may or may not be the long-term starter in Atlanta.
“In that system, I think he can be what (Ryan) Tannehill was to the Titans,” a defensive coach who faced Ridder said. “There is a lot more to learn about him, but I think I saw enough there where he can be a good system quarterback. He is going to get some weapons back.”
The Tannehill/Tennessee comps stem from Falcons coach Arthur Smith’s tenure as the Titans’ offensive coordinator.
“They drafted Bijan Robinson, they can try to do what they did with Derrick Henry in Tennessee,” a former GM said. “They loaded up their defense, they got two good running backs, they got tight ends — a lot of similarities to what Arthur did in Tennessee. In that system, Ridder can probably be a 3.”
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Alex Slitz / Getty
Tiers over time
Anthony Richardson is the future at quarterback in Indianapolis. Minshew could be the starter in the short term, which is why he’s included here. Voters like him as a backup, but not as a starter, which is why half of them placed Minshew in Tier 5.
“I think he plays with poise and confidence,” a defensive coordinator said of Minshew, “but he is really just a spot starter.”
Minshew was 6-6 as a starter with Jacksonville in 2019. He is 2-10 as a starter since then, mostly because he started for teams that played very poor defense.
“He could have a better record this year than some of these guys who are 4s because the defense there in Indy is alright and they should be better on offense with that system,” an offensive coach said.
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Zach Bolinger / Icon Sportswire
Tiers over time
About this story: Edited by Daniel Uthman. Development by Marc Mazzoni. Design by John Bradford and Megan McMillan. Design direction by Amy Cavenaile and Ray Orr. Support and production by Brooks Varni. Photos by Getty Images.
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